The Russian military escalation along the Ukrainian borders grows. A presence of more than 100,000 Russian troops (see the map) may materialize as a new war. The Russian leadership has denied that their troops are planning to invade Ukraine, but many Western analysts are fearful that Russians are preparing to do so. World leaders cannot find solutions yet.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukrainian citizens have “learned to live” with the existing risks since Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2014. He asked to avoid panic.
Vyacheslav Volodin, the Russian Duma speaker, says: “Russia and Ukraine need peace. The United States and the European countries do not need nuclear war. Let us proceed from this.”
Should Ukrainians believe Russian leadership in light of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and military threats to Ukrainian borders? Russia already signed the 1994 Budapest Memorandum guaranteeing to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine. According to this document, Ukraine relinquished its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security and political guarantees. The document reaffirmed Russia’s obligation to “refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine.” Russia did not respect the unique commitment of Ukraine to eliminate all nuclear weapons from its territory.
The recent rhetoric addressing nuclear war is especially concerning even without nuclear weapons. Ukraine’s nuclear power facilities are a major concern. The country has nuclear power plants with 15 reactors in danger.
A new Russian invasion of Ukraine is likely to expose at least six nuclear reactors to the uncertainty of a ground combat environment. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is located just 120 miles from the current “front line” in the Donbas region and is on the east bank of the Dnieper River. As the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant provides over a quarter of the country’s total electrical power, plant managers will be reluctant to shutdown the plant. Ukraine’s desperate need for power only compounds the risks associated with operating the plant. If the nuclear plants were to be hit by cyber or other Russian-sourced “grey zone” attacks, then the plants could become unmanageable before the battle arrived at the reactor gates.
In May 2014, militants already arrived to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. The unknown men were stopped by Ukrainian police before entering the power plant area. On 31 August 2014, a Greenpeace member expressed concerns that the plant could be hit by heavy artillery from the fighting. Forbes warns that “the world has never experienced war that threatens active nuclear power infrastructure.”
At the same time, fear affects even the countries far away from the possible war zone. Irish Mirror asks how the Irish Government would respond to a possible crisis, including fallout from nuclear explosions in Europe. War in Ukraine could generate multiple International Atomic Energy Agency “Level 7” accidents in a few days.
De-escalation of the crisis around Ukraine is needed. Ukrainians do not want confrontation.